Trends Analysis of Stream Flow at Different Gauging Stations in Upper Jhelum River

Main Article Content

Yogesh Pandey
A. K. Mishra
A. Sarangi
D. K. Singh
R. N. Sahoo
S. Sarkar

Abstract

Analysis of stream flow trends plays a significant role in the flood forecasting and hydrologic drought assessment related investigations besides study of water resource management In this study, the long-term stream flow data recorded at different gauging stations in Upper Jhelum River (UJR) in Jammu and Kashmir (J &K) state basin were estimated using the Modified Mann-Kendall Test (MMKT)  and Sen’s Slope Estimator (SSE).Long term time series data of ten gauging stations used for trend analysis were annual maximum and monthly maximum stream flows for the years (1980-2016) for the months of occurrence of flood in UJRB. It was observed that six gauging stations out of the ten showed a significant decreasing trend in discharge and depth of flow in the UJRB at 0.05 probability level of significance. However the results of the monthly and seasonal maximum stream flow analysis showed that during spring season (March to May) about 90% of the gauging stations depicted downward trends in the summer season (Jun to Aug) all the gauging stations showed downward stream flow trends and approximately 60% of the gauging stations showed downward trends in the month of September (first month of autumn). This analysis resulted into quantification of flood magnitudes and its periodicity of occurrences to develop flood mitigation strategies. Nonetheless, such investigation of water flow in the river would also assist in regional hydrologic studies besides occurrence of flood and hydrologic droughts.

Keywords:
Stream flow, flood, trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen estimator.

Article Details

How to Cite
Pandey, Y., Mishra, A. K., Sarangi, A., Singh, D. K., Sahoo, R. N., & Sarkar, S. (2020). Trends Analysis of Stream Flow at Different Gauging Stations in Upper Jhelum River. Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International, 24(7), 39-55. https://doi.org/10.9734/jgeesi/2020/v24i730242
Section
Original Research Article

References

Huber UM, Bugmann HKM, Reasoner AM. Global change and Mountain regions: An overview of current knowledge. Advances in Global Change Research Series. 2005; 23:4020-3508.

Bates BC, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof J. Climate change and water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva; 2008.

Archer DR, Fowler HJ. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications. Hydrol. Earth Sys. Sci. 2004;8(1):47-61.

Boer GJ, Flato G, Ramsden DA. Transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: Projected climate to the twenty-first century. Clim. Dyn. 2000; 16:427–450.

Nijssen B, O’Donnell GM, Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP. Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. Clim. Change. 2001;50:143–175.

Labat D, Goddéris Y, Probst JL, Guyot JL. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Adv.Water Res. 2004;27:631–642.

Ramanathan V, Chung C, Kim D, Bettge T, Buja L, Kiehl JT, Washington WM, Fu Q, Sikka DR, Wild M. Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA. 2005;102:5326–5333.

Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Wallis JR, Hydroclimatological trends in the continental United States 1948–1988. Journal of Climate. 1994;7:586–607.

Chug S, Farroq MA. Satellite based rapid assessment on floods in J & K-September, 2015. Deptt. of Ecol., Env and RS, Govt of J & K. 2015;112.

Ray K, Bhan SC, Bandyopadhyaay BK. The catastrophe over J & K in 2014 - A meteorical observational analysis. Current Science. 2015;109(3):580-591.

Kahya E, Kalayci S. Trend analysis of stream flow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology. 2004;289:128–144.

Zhang X, Harvey KD, Hogg WD, Yuzyk TR. Trends in Canadian stream flow. Water Resour. Res. 2001;37:987-998.

Kendall MG. Rank correlation methods, 4th ed. Charles Griffin, London; 1975.

Tian Q, Wang Q, Zhan C, Li X, Liu X. Analysis of the climate change in the coastal zone of eastern China, against the background of global climate change over the fifty years: Case study of Shandong peninsula, China. International Journal of Geosciences. 2012;3:379-90.

Lins HF, Slack JR. Stream flow trends in the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett. 1999;26:227–230.

Zhang Q. Changing properties of hydrological extremes in south China: natural variations or human influences? Hydrological Processes. 2010;24:1421–1432.

Kahya E, Kalayci S. Trend analysis of stream flow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology. 2004;289:128–144.

Dixon H, Lawler DM, Shamseldin AY. Stream flow trends in western Britain. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006;33:19406.

Wilson D, Hisdal H, Lawrence D. Has stream flow changed in the Nordic countries?–Recent trends and comparisons to hydrological projections. Journal of Hydrology. 2010; 394(3):334-346.

Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Vicente-Serrano SM, López-Moreno JI, Morán-Tejeda E, Zabalza J. Recent trends in Iberian stream flows (1945–2005). Journal of Hydrology. 2012;414:463-475.

Hannaford J, Buys G. Trends in seasonal river flow regimes in the UK. J. Hydrol. 2012;475:158–174.

Abghari H, Tabari H, Hosseinzadeh Talaee P. River flow trends in the west of Iran during the past 40 years: Impact of precipitation variability. Glob Planet Change. 2013;101:52-60.

Bassiouni M, Oki DS. Trends and shifts in stream flow in Hawaii, 1913– 2008. Hydrol. Process. 2013;27:1484–1500.

Chen Z, Chen Y, Li B. Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff for Kaidu River Basin in arid region of northwest China. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2013;111:537–545.

Stojković M, Ilić A, Prohaska S, Plavšić J. Multi-temporal analysis of mean annual and seasonal stream flow trends, including periodicity and multiple non-linear regressions. Water Resource Management. 2014;28,4319–4335.

Zamani R, Mirabbasi R, Abdollahi S, Jhajharia D. Stream flow trend analysis by considering autocorrelation structure, long-term persistence, and Hurst coefficient in a semi-arid region of Iran. Theor Appl Climatol; 2016.

Jiang C, Daiqing L, Yanni G, Xianfeng L, Wenfeng L, Linbo Z. Spatiotemporal variability of stream flow and attribution

in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region, northwest China. Journal of Water and Climate Change. 2016;47638-649.

Hannaford J, Buys G. Trends in seasonal river flow regimes in the UK. J. Hydrol. 2012;475:158–174.

Bassiouni M, Oki DS. Trends and shifts in stream flow in Hawaii, 1913–2008. Hydrol. Process. 2013;27:1484–1500.

De Martino G. Fontana N. Marini G, Singh VP. Variability and trend in seasonal precipitation in the continental United States. J. Hydrol. Eng. 2013;18:630– 640.

Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), November, Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment. A Sectorial and Regional Analysis for 2030, New Delhi, MoEF, GoI; 2010.

Duhan D, Pandey A. Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901–2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India. Atmos. Res. 2013;122: 136–149.

Pasquini AI, Depetris PJ. Discharge trends and flow dynamics of South American rivers draining the southern Atlantic seaboard: An overview. J. Hydrol. 2007; 333:385–399.

State action plan on climate change. J&K; 2013.

Climate Change 2014: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, working group ii contribution to the IPCC 5th assessment report, intergovernmental panel on climate change, Geneva a satellite based rapid assessment on floods in Jammu & Kashmir- September. (NRSC, Dept. of Ecology, Environment and Remote Sensing Government of Jammu and Kashmir Srinagar.); 2014.

Douglas EM, Vogel RM, Knoll CN, Trends in Flood and low flows in the United States: Impact of spatial correlation. Journal of Hydrology. 2000;240:90-105.

Steele TD, Gilroy EJ, Hawkinson RO. Techniques for the assessment of areal and temporal variations in stream flow quality. Open File Report, US Geological Survey, Washington D C; 1974.

Sen PK. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1968;63:1379–138.

Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Smith RA. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resources Research. 1982;18:107-121.