Geospatial Assessment of LULC Dynamics and Land Surface Temperature Variations in KMA (2008–2024) Using Multi-source Satellite Data and Predictive Modeling
Shubham Limaye
Department of Geography, Savitribai Phule Pune University, India.
Ayan Chakraborty
Department of Geography, Savitribai Phule Pune University, India.
Atreya Paul *
Department of Geography, Bidhannagar College, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Concept: Rapid urbanization in the Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA) has significantly altered land use and surface temperature. This necessitates a geospatial investigation to understand long-term environmental impacts.
Objectives: To analyze spatiotemporal LULC changes and corresponding LST variations from 2008 to 2024. To simulate future land cover trends and assess the impact of urbanization on thermal patterns.
Methods: Landsat 4/5 TM and Landsat 8/9 OLI-TIRS imagery were processed using supervised classification and thermal band analysis. Change detection and MOLUSCE modeling were applied to predict the 2040 LULC scenario.
Results: Built-up areas increased by 99.3%, while forest and water bodies declined by 65.3% and 41.7%, respectively. These changes were accompanied by a sharp rise in LST, especially in urban hotspots.
Conclusion: Significant correlation exists between urban expansion and surface warming, validating the Urban Heat Island effect. Green infrastructure, afforestation, and zoning reforms are essential for sustainable urban resilience.
Keywords: Urbanization, LULC, land surface temperature, urban heat island, Landsat, MOLUSCE, Kolkata metropolitan area, geospatial analysis, climate resilience, predictive modeling