Geospatial Analysis of the Impact of Land Cover Change on Land Surface Temperature in Abuja, Nigeria (1986-2021)
Moses Olorunfemi Areh
Strategic Space Applications, National Space Research and Development Agency, Abuja, Nigeria.
Ahmed Onimisi Abdulrahaman
*
Centre for International Postgraduate Studies of Environmental Management, Technische Universität Dresden, Germany.
Zuliehat Ohunene Abdullahi
Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography, Nigerian Defense Academy, Kaduna, Nigeria.
Afolayan Oluwatosin Abolaji
African Regional Centre for Space Science and Technology, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria.
Momoh Khalifa Adeiza
Department of Geography, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria.
Omoniyi Taofiq Mustapha
Faculty of Environmental Science, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Urbanization has significantly altered land cover patterns, leading to rising land surface temperatures (LST) and the intensification of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This study examines the impact of land cover change on LST in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) - Abuja, Nigeria, from 1986 to 2021, using geospatial techniques. Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, and Landsat 8 OLI imagery were analyzed to assess land cover changes, extract LST, and compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Supervised classification was performed using ERDAS Imagine, and LST was derived through radiometric calibration, brightness temperature estimation, and regression analysis. Results indicate a substantial decline in vegetation cover from 52.7% in 1986 to 37.5% in 2021, alongside a significant increase in built-up areas from 3.15% to 16.8%. Correspondingly, LST values showed an upward trend, with mean surface temperatures rising from 27.4°C in 1986 to 33.2°C in 2021, highlighting the intensification of UHI effects. A strong inverse correlation (-0.76) between NDVI and LST suggests that vegetation loss contributes directly to rising surface temperatures. The study recommends enhanced urban planning policies focused on afforestation, green infrastructure, and Climate-responsive land use to mitigate urban heating effects and enhance sustainability.
Keywords: Land Surface Temperature (LST), Land Cover Change, Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and Urban Heat Island (UHI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)